While Arsenal and Southampton sit in very different positions in the Premier League, something that unites them both is a sense of being unable to find consistency. What has really damaged Southampton though is their inability to get back on their feet after a loss. For instance, Arsenal suffered a 5-1 hammering at the hands of Liverpool in their last match of 2018, but came back in 2019 with a quality 4-1 victory over Fulham.
Southampton, on the other hand, go through long periods where it appears their momentum has crashed. They often seem to just be stuck in the mud in terms of their performances and their approach to matches. If both their seasons have been seesaw-like, then Arsenal have left their feet as often as they touched the ground. Meanwhile, Southampton remained still, hoping for the occasional thud to hurl them upwards.
Arsenal vs Southampton Prediction: Arsenal 2-1 Southampton
Not only is there a clear difference in results between these teams but they are very much backed up by performance quality. However, Southampton have occasionally risen to the occasion. One instance of this came when they met back in December, and Arsenal lost 3-2. A win that recent cannot be ignored, and it certainly proves that Southampton are capable of getting the job done.
However, being capable doesn’t necessarily mean they are the most likely victors. Based on all the other factors, we predict the Gunners will triumph here. Taking their last head-to-head outing into consideration, we also think a few goals are likely, meaning our predicted scoreline is 2-1 to the home team.
Our recommended tip: Arsenal win to nil
The home team do hold the advantage coming into this contest. Arsenal enjoy a comfortable win probability of 64%, while Southampton trail behind significantly with just a 14% win probability. You’ll find the same story at the bookmakers, with Ladbrokes giving Arsenal low-risk 1/2 match odds. In contrast, a wager on a Southampton win represents a much higher risk, with match odds of 5/1. While we recommend that you back the favourites for the best chance of winning, we also suggest that you predict they’ll win to nil to get medium-risk 17/10 odds and a higher potential ROI.
Well, we’ve already discussed their most recent meeting, but considering its relevance to our prediction, we could hardly avoid that. Elsewhere though, their recent results show Arsenal as the largely dominant team. They also won by 3-2 in 2018 and bested Southampton twice in 2017 by 2-0 and 5-0 respectively.
Southampton do pepper in a victory now and again – especially during 2015 – but the overall advantage is clear. That’s not to mention the fact these are less prosperous times for the Saints. This trend is pretty consistent throughout their history, with Arsenal netting over double the victories overall. What this shows is Southampton can beat Arsenal, but they fail to more often than not.
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Players to watch: Alex Iwobi & Nathan Redmond
Arsenal: Alex Iwobi
While Alexandre Lacazette would likely be many commenter’s obvious pick here, considering he’s managed to score in four games of the last six league matches, we’re actually going to give the nod here to Alex Iwobi. His consistent attacks tore down the defences of Huddersfield Town a fortnight ago. Southampton are resilient opponents, and the constant pressure he provides will be vital in winning this game.
Southampton: Nathan Redmond
Although Southampton’s season hasn’t been going quite as they may have hoped recently, one huge positive is in the changes we’ve seen lately from Nathan Redmond. He has not only scored five goals in his last 10 games but has also improved in virtually every aspect of his game. It will be great to see if he can continue to thrive amongst the pressure that Arsenal will no doubt bring to the field.