The battle to avoid relegation is raging at the bottom end of the Premier League. This match between Newcastle – who sit within the drop zone via a mere point – and Cardiff – who are immediately above them in 17th place – is one of the most important matches in that equation.
Neither have had things go their way in the Premier League, but they do come here from different angles. Newcastle has seen a serious decline in results this time, seem to be on a downward trajectory, and are desperate to put the brakes on their slide to the bottom. Meanwhile, Cardiff, having only been promoted this season, cling onto their position and are trying to prove they belong in the big leagues. Whether Newcastle can dig deep and find the form which has brought them success in the past, or whether it is simply Cardiff’s time, remains to be seen.
Newcastle vs Cardiff Prediction: Newcastle 1-0 Cardiff
We do respect and admire everything Cardiff have done in getting promoted, and Newcastle are currently sitting below them in the standings. However, the bottom line is that we think the Magpies have shown the most potential heading into this match. Sometimes what’s shown on the pitch is not always reflected in the results, and with the stakes this high, we predict that Newcastle’s quality will simply prove to be too much for Cardiff.
As for the scoreline, considering how low scoring both teams have been, we don’t think there will be much in it. So, because we think this will also be a close game, our prediction is for the match to go 1-0 to Newcastle.
Our recommended tip: Newcastle win to nil
With a 47% win probability to Cardiff City’s 23%, Newcastle United are the clear favourites going into this contest. Ladbrokes give them 1/1 match odds, with their opponents having slightly higher risk 3/1 odds on a victory. However, Cardiff were denied goals in their recent FA Cup third round match against Gillingham and league game with Tottenham, which went 1-0 and 3-0 against them respectively. If Newcastle can do the same, then punters could enjoy a higher potential ROI, as Ladbrokes have 2/1 odds on the home side winning to nil.
Another important reason for Newcastle’s position as favourites here has to be the head-to-head history between these two, in which the home side clearly come out as having the advantage. Cardiff have won considerably fewer games in this fixture, and perhaps more importantly, have struggled even more in modern times. Were it not for a 2-1 result in 2014, we’d be looking all the way back to 1981 for their last victory, which is one win in 11 games.
There’s some hope for Cardiff fans though: their last contest back in August 2018 did end up in a 0-0 stalemate, showing that a Newcastle win here is far from a sure thing.
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Players to watch: Salomón Rondón & Sol Bamba
Newcastle United: Salomón Rondón
There are plenty of games where we’d consider the player to watch to be someone we expect might break out in this match. However, with the stakes this high, we think both teams won’t be taking those kinds of chances and will be throwing everything at their opposition to net the victory. In these situations, you need a hit-maker, and for Newcastle – even with their low scoring season – no one has managed that quite like Salomón Rondón.
Cardiff City: Sol Bamba
Considering the setbacks Cardiff has suffered due to injury, and that there’s no obvious key goalscorer, we’ve decided to take a different tact here and give the nod to Sol Bamba. Not only has he managed as many goals as their top forward but he was absolutely vital in keeping Huddersfield at bay in defence. His presence is something that may be the difference maker here, especially if the Magpies come into this all guns blazing, and there’s a good reason to think they will.