That special day which comes around twice a year, and has inexplicably made a national celebrity out of Jim White, is here again. As January burns through its final hours, teams who have had since mid-August to identify the gaping holes in their squads are realising that they’d really better get a move on now, like the panicked shopper staggering around Asda in a daze at 10pm on the 24th of December.
January’s deadline day has brought us some of the most intriguing transfers in the recent history of English football. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang arrived at Arsenal around this time last season, while Liverpool broke their transfer record to sign Andy Carroll from Newcastle in 2011. In recent years, we’ve also seen ill-fated deals such as Stoke (2016) breaking their transfer record to bring in Giannelli Imbula and, in 2012, Chelsea spending £6.7 million to sign Kevin de Bruyne. A decent price for a superb player, making it all the odder that he barely played for the Blues, moving to Wolfsburg two years later before returning to rule the Premier League with Manchester City.
There are plenty of bets to be made on this season’s deadline day, so let’s have a look at where the value could be (for bettors, of course. No club is going to get anything like a bargain today, but a few agents will be laughing their socks off come midnight)
Newcastle To Make Key Signings, It Says Here
Famously penny-pinching Magpies owner Mike Ashley has developed a reputation for chronic underinvestment in one of the Premier League’s most profitable clubs, but the expected arrival of Paraguayan midfielder Miguel Almiron looks set to be one of the day’s bigger deals. Rumours abound that the North-East giants will be adding at least one more player, and Paddy Power have odds of 4/11 on Rafael Benitez to be the manager with the most new playthings as February gets underway.
Other teams who are expected to be active in advance of the transfer window slamming! shut! include Southampton, who face a battle against relegation and are in need of major reinforcement, while Arsenal’s hopes of a fourth-place finish may rely on the ability to add a few players who fit into Unai Emery’s high-intensity approach to the game. At the time of writing, they’ve already added Barcelona midfielder Denis Suarez on loan, and they could be set to bring in at least one more.
Beating The Clock – Who’ll Make The Last Signing?
With football being the multi-billion pound business it is, it goes without saying that the money-men and the boardrooms will make sure their affairs are in order long before any deadline passes. At least, it would in any reasonable world, but just ask Leicester City fans how that worked out for them in 2017, when they rushed through a deal to sign Portuguese midfielder Adrien Silva just as the summer window closed. Unfortunately, because his deal wasn’t ratified until 14 seconds past midnight, he had to sit out the next several months – a Leicester player, but not a Leicester player. No club wants to get caught out like that again.
However, teams who may be cutting it fine this evening include Arsenal, who are looking to bolster their midfield but may need to move a player or two on before completing more deals. Their deadline day deal in 2009 to sign Andriy Arshavin dragged on for so long it was actually announced the following day. If they need to stay open until the early hours to hash something out, they will do so, and are an attractive 5/1 with Coral to be the Premier League club with the last signing of the day; that’s our Bet of the Day.
”He’s Going Where? – Unlikely Moves Which Could Happen
Celtic fans will remember deadline day in 2010, when their club took advantage of the window closing later in Scotland than in England to loan the suddenly-available Robbie Keane from Spurs. He wasn’t the centre-back they had sorely needed, but he scored a few goals in his six-month stint in Glasgow; as did Craig Bellamy, signed under similar circumstances in 2005. If you believe Ladbrokes, the Hoops may be about to make a third deadline day move for a striker they don’t need at the expense of bolstering a leaky defence; they have a price of 10/11 for West Ham’s Andy Carroll to make the second headline-grabbing January move of his career.
More realistically, the same odds are on offer for the injury-prone but effective front man to make the short trek from Walthamstow to Tottenham. Spurs are light on strikers, with Harry Kane out until late March. They’re also light on cash, making a permanent signing unlikely at this stage, and a loan for a proven Premier League target man makes a lot of sense in those circumstances.
A final word on the transfer window odds, relating to the 10/1 price you can find at a few bookmakers on the British transfer record being broken this evening. That record is currently held by Manchester United and Paul Pogba, who signed for just shy of £90million in 2017. Although 10/1 may look like an attractive price, only the most feckless club would even consider coughing up close to nine figures at this stage of the window. It’s not going to happen, and you – like the average Premier League chairman – are best off holding on to your money at this point.
