With PSG 13 points clear and 12 games still to play, the Ligue 1 title is all but decided, but there is plenty still to be sorted out in France. The Friday evening game brings together two sides who have very different reasons for needing the points. Hosts Nimes have won four of their last five to pull within goal difference of 17th-placed Dijon and the dream of safety – only losing to a late goal on last week’s visit to Rennes. Marseille, for their part, also lost last weekend, their defeat against Nantes coming out of nowhere in a season which has been mostly upside.
The hosts may have plenty of momentum in their favour along with home advantage, but there is little doubt that l’OM come into this contest with the favourites tag. Andre Villas Boas’ side hadn’t lost in 14 matches until last weekend’s loss, and although that run of form hasn’t been enough to haul them ahead of the unstoppable cash fountain that is PSG, they do have second spot and an eight-point lead over Rennes, allowing them to feel comfortable coming into a game that they really should win.
Scoring could be at a premium
Although Marseille have an almost identical defensive record to PSG, there’s a more relevant number that explains the gap between the sides in league terms. The leaders have scored 71 goals in their 26 league matches, while Marseille have just over half that (36). Remember, Marseille are in second place. They have climbed to that spot in the league with just 1.38 goals a game; in other words, they’re barely more productive in attack than Aston Villa. One could easily conclude that all those cracks about Villas Boas’ overly-attacking tactics with Chelsea had left scars on him.
Nonetheless, they are in second place, so Marseille clearly know how to win a game and they’ll be expected to control this one from start to finish even against a Nimes side that has rallied impressively to rescue a situation that put them more or less in the “relegated” basket at the start of this year. We’d peg it to be a very low-scoring contest, and Betsafe will give you 9/5 on there being fewer than 1.5 goals in this game. That’s certainly a price worth looking at given the low return both of these sides are having in front of goal.
Visitors to fight for any advantage
At the beginning of the 1990s, there was a realistic case to be made for Marseille being the best team in Europe. In fact, they made the final of the then European Cup in 1991 and were comfortable favourites to overcome Red Star Belgrade. That was before 120 of the dullest minutes of football ever played, followed by a penalty shoot-out win for the Serbian side (then Yugoslavian). Over the years since, Marseille have been involved in a match-fixing scandal that saw them relegated from Ligue 1, and watched as their hated Parisian rivals became football’s wealthiest club. There have been titles here and there, but for most Marseille fans, the highlight of any year is when PSG’s billionaires inevitably come up short in the Champions League.
Actually qualifying for the biggest European pot themselves is a bonus, if they can manage it, and this edition of the Olympien side looks well-placed thanks to AVB’s well-organised pressing and counter-attacking side. Nimes will do everything they can to make it difficult for their visitors this evening, but it seems likely that the points will be heading back to the Velodrome nonetheless. It’s worth taking NetBet’s 9/2 odds on Marseille to win the match after being level at half-time here.
Three points to Marseille
The likelihood, after a recent resurgence, is that Nimes will avoid relegation from Ligue 1 – even if they can’t leapfrog Dijon, their current station of 18th place would merely see them into a play-off rather than directly into Ligue 2. However, they can’t count on getting anything from this evening’s game, and after conceding three against Nantes it seems most likely that Marseille will redouble their defensive efforts tonight.
It won’t end their battling resistance if Nimes lose, although it will be a frustration. This match will be tightly-poised and even given that the sides are at opposite ends of the table, we wouldn’t expect anything but a battle for the points. Marseille seem likely to come away with the win – we’d back them to win 1-0 (5/1 at William Hill) and to move on with the rest of their season. It will, however, be one where they will have to fight for anything they get, and defend it every bit as stoutly as they battled to score it.
Bets of the Day
Draw/Marseille HT/FT (NetBet, 9/2); Marseille 1-0 (William Hill, 5/1); Fewer than 1.5 goals (Betsafe, 9/5)
