With the Coppa Italia at the semi-final stage, two of Italy’s largest and most prestigious sides set down to do battle this evening, both with sobering defeats at the weekend to digest. Milan, whose derby with Inter began so well and ended so badly, could really do with inflicting a loss on champions Juventus here. La Vecchia Signora, for their part, are hurting after an entirely avoidable defeat at the hands of Verona. That defeat, combined with the result of the Milan derby, also saw Inter pull level on points with Juve at the top of Serie A – so the Turin side will be looking for a rapid reaction this evening.
Juve are slated to field a strong side here, even taking into account for the rotation that they usually practice in cup games: Gianluigi Buffon will be back between the sticks while Paulo Dybala is set to replace Gonzalo Higuain. With the title far from guaranteed, Mauricio Sarri cannot afford to look any gift horse in the mouth, and he’ll want to make a serious go of winning the Coppa. Milan, for their part, languish in tenth, 22 points behind the leaders – so this represents their only chance for honours in this campaign. They need a win tonight.
”Ibra” to take a starring role?
Zlatan Ibrahimovic will be 39 later this year, but he can probably keep playing for another few years fuelled merely by ego. The weekend saw him score against Inter, a side that he played for for three of the best years of his career. Tonight, he’ll line up against another of his many former employers. This happens often enough to “Ibra”, as a player to whom the cliche “more clubs than Jack Nicklaus” applies. His sense for the big occasion should ensure that he puts on a performance this evening.
The Swedish star cannot be accused of being a prima donna – although he expects high standards and an extreme work rate from his teammates, he will deliver the same himself. He’ll also want to win a personal battle with Juve’s ageless ‘keeper Buffon, a former teammate and, at 42, the only player on the field older than himself. Knowing Ibrahimovic, however the match ends he is likely to be on the scoresheet – so that’s an outcome worth backing at 7/5 with Betfair, who offer 40/1 on the same player plundering a hat-trick.
Both sides seeking a silver lining
Juventus aren’t having a bad season, per se. Usually by this stage in the campaign, they’re ahead of their closest rivals and stretching out that lead, but Inter are on their shoulder right now. They have a last-16 tie with Lyon on the horizon in the Champions League, which is tricky but more than winnable. However, this is a side that has been unfailingly dominant domestically, and parted with nearly £100million in order to secure the services of Cristiano Ronaldo – now 35, remember – in order to translate that domestic superiority into continental honours.
This week of football could be crucial to the Juventus project. Losing to Verona was unforeseen, but deserved. A poor result tonight would turn that stumble into a wobble, and with Lazio and Inter within such close range in the league could really throw the pressure onto the champions. Milan, for their part, need a win after falling apart so embarrassingly against their city rivals. It all adds up to a draw being the most likely result tonight. Juve would be in the ascendancy, although not so much that Milan couldn’t possibly overturn it. We see this ending as a score draw, which is rated a 3/1 shot at MansionBet. With too many exciting players on the field for their not to be openings, we simply think the goals will be shared equally.
Not a goalfest, but an entertaining match
With this being a two-legged tie, nothing is likely to be definitively settled this evening, although if Juventus win the away leg they’re more or less set fair for the final. It’s always felt that it’s hard to win a two-leg fixture on the opening night, but it is possible to lose one. In that light, we may not see daylight emerge this evening. Either team taking the lead here will be pleased with doing so and may not put the pedal to the metal searching for another goal – and even if they are then pulled back, will feel grateful that they haven’t been dumped out altogether.
All of which adds up to this game feeling very much like a 1-1 draw by the time the final whistle is blown. It would suit the hosts – who could still spring a surprise in a few weeks’ time by winning the second leg. It would suit the visitors, who would expect to finish things off on home ground. It might just suit you, as well, to get on that outcome at 11/2 with Betway – this game feels like one which both sides would be happy to get out of the way.
Bets of the Day
1-1 draw (Betway, 11/2); Score Draw (MansionBet, 3/1); Ibrahimovic to score (Betfair, 7/5)
