We now know the identity of one of the Australian Open Men’s Singles finalists, after Novak Djokovic put a fed-up Roger Federer to the sword in straight sets in Semi-Final 1. In the other half of the draw, where Rafael Nadal and his nineteen career majors were supposed to occupy the box seat, we have a semi-final between two men without a single Grand Slam title between them. What we do know is that Djokovic will be playing the final against someone from a country in Central Europe. We don’t know, as yet, whether it will be Austria’s Dominic Thiem, or Alexander “Sascha” Zverev from Germany.
Thiem has in his favour that he has at least competed in the final of one of tennis’s most prized crown – twice, in fact, on his preferred clay at the French Open. Across two meetings with Nadal, he picked up a single set (which is more than most opponents manage at Roland Garros). Zverev, for his part, has never been this far before; twice a quarter-finalist in France, his chances of a longer run were ended in 2018 by Thiem himself. For these two players – both of whom will have a legitimate claim to be the world’s best once Federer, Nadal and Djokovic call it a day – this semi represents a chance to surpass their own personal bests.
Zverev the fresher contender
If we look at the time that both players have spent on court so far in this open, Thiem has more reason to be weary than his opponent, with the former having played 14 hours and 33 minutes. The German, at just under ten and a half hours, has in effect played one match less, which could be telling if the match goes into a fourth or even fifth set. With that said, “Domi” is apparently improving as he progresses through the competition, hitting an impressive 65 winners in a four-set win over Nadal – and winning three tiebreaks against one of the best “clutch” players ever to pick up a racquet.
Thiem will be hoping that he can come through this match and spend as little time on court as possible, knowing how Djokovic likes to punish tired opponents. That said, this is unlikely to be a walkover on either side of the court. Both of these men have beaten a former AO Champion to get here, and we can’t expect a straight-sets win for either. At William Hill, there’s 11/8 on offer for the match to run to four sets, and we’d back that outcome.
Fault lines to favour Thiem?
At six and a half feet tall, Zverev towers over his opponent here (and, to be fair, most players), and this is part of the reason behind the danger he poses with his pacey first serve. However, on second serve, the World Number 7 is a greater threat to himself than anyone else. At his last major, the US Open, the German served more than ten double faults per match. At the ATP Cup earlier this month, he was at it again, and this propensity to miss second serves when the heat is on could prove costly if it arises against Thiem.
The Austrian, for his part, is not known for his serve – the red clay doesn’t favour cannon-armed big guys, as the likes of Pete Sampras found out in their heyday. Like his fallen quarter-final opponent, Thiem is a perfectly decent server, but will rely more on his groundstrokes and is unlikely to find himself coughing up “gimme” points on his serve. With a -1.5 handicap, Zverev is 6/4 to serve more double faults than his opponent here; that’s a bet worth taking at 888, because the likeable German is likely to struggle more than Thiem.
Zverev’s wait to continue
It’s no knock on Zverev to say that he is the underdog here. Yes, he’s been on court for four hours less, and hasn’t had to work through three tie-breaks against the World Number One. One stat rings out louder than that, however, and it’s the head-to-head between these stars. This will be their ninth meeting overall, and six of the previous eight have been won by Thiem. That includes two of their three meetings on hard courts, although the underdog did win the one time they met on an outdoor hard surface as they are here – in Beijing four years ago.
It would not be a huge surprise to see Zverev win this match. However…
In the end, it seems more credible to see Thiem continue his head-to-head dominance, and leverage his experience of major semi-finals, to make it through to face the man who has won this title seven times already. Backing Thiem simply to win isn’t likely to secure you great odds, though, so given the edge he has, it’s worth getting on the Austrian to win with a 5.5 game handicap. If he can finish this in four sets or fewer, the game difference should take care of itself, and you can get 9/5 at Unibet on that outcome.
Bets of the Day
Thiem -5.5 games (Unibet, 9/5); Zverev (-1.5) to serve more double faults (888, 6/4); Four sets in match (William Hill, 11/8)
