The Democratic selection process for a Presidential candidate is now fully underway, although even seasoned politics-watchers will have had some difficulty unpicking a process that – in the end – gave up-and-comer Pete Buttigieg a marginal advantage in the delegate count, with 14 ahead of the 12 hoovered up by Bernie Sanders. The Iowa caucus was a messy affair, as the phone app designed to collate vote and delegate totals entirely failed on the night of the caucus. It now remains to be seen whether Iowa will retain its honoured status as the first state to vote when the Democrats hold their next selection in 2024.
To unpick the result itself: Although Buttigieg finished the contest with a higher delegate count than Sanders, he was some 2,000 votes behind the Vermont socialist in terms of the popular vote. The mayor of South Bend, IN, therefore currently leads the battle to become the Democratic nominee – but that might cease to be the case as early as tonight, when New Hampshire holds its primary. With 24 votes to share out, the state could give a real boost to any one of the top four candidates.
Buttigieg surprising many, but winning few friends
It’s long been thought that Bernie Sanders would be in this primary race for the long haul – and that, sooner or later, one of the more “mainstream”, centrist candidates would become the consensus candidate to challenge him down to the winner’s post. Prior to Iowa, it was assumed that said candidate would be Joe Biden, who spent eight years as Vice President to Barack Obama. Then the vote totals came out, and it turned out that he had attracted barely half the votes registered for Sanders, and was a similarly hefty distance behind Buttigieg.
We’ll see tonight how this outcome has affected people’s voting intention. A significant proportion of the Democratic electorate is determined simply to keep Sanders out of the General election in November, and if they don’t feel Biden can attract enough support to do that, they’ll switch to Buttigieg in a heartbeat. However, this equally runs the risk of splitting the “anti-Sanders” vote, which is why the popular independent is rated at 1/7 by William Hill to take the state. That said, Buttigieg’s odds of 4/1 are intriguing – he was in the region of 7/1 to win Iowa, and by the rules of the contest he technically did just that. He might be worth backing.
New Hampshire to inform Nevada?
The caucus and primary system is an intriguing process; unlike the big Presidential election, different parts of the country vote on different dates, so those voting in California can wait and see what voters in earlier states such as Iowa and New Hampshire do. This can lead to candidates pulling out before the contest even gets to their preferred states, and means that the earlier states can shape the whole process. A disastrous night in Iowa has already hurt Biden’s polling numbers for New Hampshire, although his overall nationwide numbers are still within touching distance of the leader, Sanders.
Nevada goes to the polls next weekend, and it’s likely that tonight’s results will have a decisive impact on a state that is – by polling numbers – in the balance. In truth, Nevada was last polled in the middle of January, and things may well have changed since then. Biden was leading at that point, but by a single percentage point from Sanders. If he makes a good showing tonight, he could become favourite to take the state. As it is now, Sanders is 1/3 favourite with Betfair – and that might be the way to go, given Buttigieg’s miserable performance in statewide polls there.
Will it be Sanders vs Trump in November?
It hardly seems believable that an American election could be contested between a politician as firmly on the left as Sanders and one as far to the right as Donald Trump, and yet that is the most likely outcome as we look at things right now. Opinion in the centre of the Democratic party has entirely failed to coalesce around one specific nominee, and “Super Tuesday” – with its fifteen contests, allocating approximately a third of the overall delegate count – is just three weeks away. While Iowa may have delivered a good night for Buttigieg, the televised debate on Friday night did not – with Biden and centrist outsider Amy Klobuchar turning most of their fire on the 37-year-old.
Paddy Power have odds of 11/8 on Sanders to be the Dem candidate when America votes in November. This makes him favourite, ahead of the former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg – who can and will finance his own run with the billions of dollars he can lay claim to, and will stay in the contest for as long as it takes.
If no contender has accumulated 1,990 delegates by the time of the Democratic convention in July, there will be a “contested convention”, in which it is possible that Bloomberg could run directly against Sanders. However, if the Vermont senator were to be some distance ahead prior to that convention, it has to be questioned whether the party would dare impose an unpopular billionaire on their electorate over the head of a candidate whose appeal is based in large part on his opposition to wealth inequality. We’d back Sanders to take the nomination – though there may be twists and turns before then.
Bets of the Day
Sanders to be Democratic nominee (Paddy Power, 11/8); Sanders to win Nevada (Betfair, 1/3); Buttigieg to win New Hampshire (William Hill, 4/1)
