Commonwealth Cup preview: Advertise each-way value for Royal Ascot sprint featurePublished on: June 20, 2019Author: Jamie Clark
Advertise looks real each-way value at 11/1 with William Hill in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot on Friday now dropping back in trip to 6f (3:40).
Trained by Martyn Meade for Phoenix Thoroughbreds, the son of Showcasing was a gallant length runner-up to Calyx over course and distance as this meeting 12 months ago in the Coventry Stakes on just his second career start.
Having landed his Newbury maiden on debut, Advertise later resumed winning ways with a comfortable victory in the Group 2 July Stakes at Newmarket. He then followed-up with success at the highest level in the Phoenix Stakes at The Curragh.
Advertise found plenty for pressure under regular rider Frankie Dettori and scored by half-a-length from So Perfect. The runner-up has run a string of solid races since.
Although beaten by last year’s champion juvenile colt Too Darn Hot when stepped up to 7f for the Dewhurst back at Newmarket, Advertise finished over a length in front of subsequent Epsom Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck.
He also failed to stay the entire Rowley Mile when bombing out on reappearance in the 2000 Guineas, but the drop back in trip holds absolutely no fears for this Group 1 winner.
An official rating of 119 leaves just 1lb between Advertise and hot favourite Ten Sovereigns. More on him in a moment, but there is a huge disparity in the market between the two.
It makes Advertise look overpriced especially at double-figure odds and with so little to find. Blinkers now go on and, if they have the desired effect, a bold bid looks assured.
As he’s the second best horse on paper, hitting the frame is the bare minimum expected from Advertise in this three-year-olds only contest.
Ten Sovereigns commands respect but plenty short enough
All-conquering Ballydoyle maestro Aidan O’Brien won the Commonwealth Cup a couple of years ago with Caravaggio and has a very worthy favourite in this renewal in Ten Sovereigns.
There are remarkable similarities between the son of No Nay Never and last year’s July Cup hero U S Navy Flag. Like that erstwhile stable companion, Ten Sovereigns was tried at a mile and found wanting.
Both O’Brien inmates won the Group 1 Middle Park over this trip at Newmarket as juveniles. Ten Sovereigns came clear of the field with runner-up Jash, but accounted for that re-opposing rival by half-a-length.
That completed a hat-trick after previous victories in a Curragh maiden and Group 3 Round Tower Stakes. As Ten Sovereigns lost two places in his group close home to be fifth in the 2000 Guineas on reappearance, he’s another who should be suited by going down in distance.
He is entitled to be favourite but – in a race where three horses are rated within 2lb of each other – odds of 5/4 with Betway aren’t value. It would be no surprise to see Ten Sovereigns land this, yet he is plenty short enough at that price and opposed on that basis alone.
Jash doesn’t have much to find
Given he only has half-a-length to find on the favourite from juvenile form, Jash is an obvious contender down in trip for trainer Simon Crisford.
This Kodiac colt is one of two engaged for Hamdam Al Maktoum – the most successful owner in the short history of the Commonwealth Cup.
He’s the only man to win it twice and teamed up with jockey Jim Crowley to land the spoils 12 months ago.
In Jash, connections have three-time winner from four starts. Only Ten Sovereigns has beaten him and, unlike that one, he was victorious on reappearance.
Jash stepped up to 7f for a Listed affair at Newmarket where he was value for more than the neck winning margin suggests. The runner-up Azano has boosted the form by coming out and winning a Group 3 in France last weekend.
As Jash stays that little bit further, it gives him every chance if stamina comes into play. We saw earlier in the week that the stiff Ascot finish is beyond Battaash who shares the same owner.
Taking all that into account, Jash cannot be ruled out if running up to his rating of 118 and the 5/1 with Coral is a fair price when you consider Ten Sovereigns is trading four times shorter.
Hello Youmzain also has claims
The mighty Calyx was supposed to be in the Commonwealth Cup bidding for back-to-back Royal Ascot wins and a third victory over course and distance.
Those plans were blown out of the water, however, by surprise Haydock conqueror Hello Youmzain.
As the Kevin Ryan trained half-brother of Jash lowered the famous Khalid Abullah colours in the Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes on Merseyside, he has to be taken seriously in this.
Hello Youmzain was pushed out close home to score by 3 1/4 lengths from Calyx, he has nothing to fear from the re-opposing Royal Intervention who was a further neck behind in third.
This was a second Group 2 success for him after winning his final start as a juvenile over in France. Hello Youmzain is also versatile as regards going, which in unsettled conditions is an obvious plus.
Although a 4 3/4 lengths fourth in the Group 3 Greenham at Newbury on reappearance and his first try over 7f, that doesn’t quite tell the full story.
Hello Youmzain got hampered half-a-furlong or so from home when keeping on well enough. Like Jash, he may be capable of getting slightly further, and the siblings are a similar price in the betting.
So, Hello Youmzain can also have a say in the finish at 5/1 with BetVictor over a trip which he has a 75 per cent strike rate at.