Tipperary preview: Robin De Carlow appeals in Like A Butterfly Novice Chase

Published on: October 5, 2019
Author: Jamie Clark
Our 2019 Like A Butterfly Novice Chase preview includes Moon Over Germany on a mixed card at Tipperary

The big race over fences on a mixed card at Tipperary this Sunday is the 2m 4f Grade 3 Like A Butterfly Novice Chase (16:35).

Now better off at the weights with re-opposing stable companion Brahma Bull, Robin De Carlow appeals most.

One of three trained by Willie Mullins, who has won three of the last five renewals, his eight-year-old daughter of Robin Des Champs is two from four over the larger obstacles.

After easily winning her chase debut at Kilbeggan by 11 lengths, Robin De Carlow followed-up over further at Killarney when besting Brahma Bull for an easy six-length victory.

Something was amiss with her in a Grade 3 during the Galway Festival and David Mullins pulled her up after jumping the first.

Robin De Carlow then chased home Brahma Bull off 4lb worse terms than their first chase encounter but was only beaten three lengths.

The swing in the weights is now back in her favour, however, as she gets a full 7lb sex allowance in a graded race.

It gives Robin De Carlow every chance of reversing the form and she’s better value at 11/2 with BetVictor than Brahma Bull in this.

Moon Over Germany dangerous in Like A Butterfly Novice Chase

If the rain comes, then Moon Over Germany is a big danger. Trained by Henry De Bromhead, this Philip Reynolds owned eight-year-old took a Grade 3 handicap at the Aintree Grand National Festival in real style.

Moon Over Germany bolted up by 10 lengths from useful dual purpose mare Lady Buttons. It was an emphatic display from a horse who was still a maiden over fences.

The son of Germany was then fourth in a Grade B handicap at the Punchestown Festival after the assessor put him up 11lb.

Connections waited for soft ground before giving him a return to action at Ballinrobe in August.

As Moon Over Germany jumped well and ran on strongly to score by 4 3/4 lengths from Ordinary World, this intermediate trip is no problem.

The runner-up was rated 157 at his peak and won next time up, so that gives the form a solid look.

If there is cut in the ground, then Moon Over Germany – who is top rated among those with a chase rating on a mark of 153 – is a serious threat to Mullins’ contingent.

He is 9/4 favourite with Boylesports to follow-up in the Like A Butterfly Novice Chase.

Davids Charm can follow-up

Despite the return of jockey Barry Geraghty and the presence of three JP McManus owned runners in the 2m Grade 3 Horse & Jockey Hotel Hurdle (15:00), Davids Charm is taken to confirm Listowel form with Ballyoisin.

The eight-year-old son of Milan is trained by JJ Walsh and in the form of his life.

Davids Charm is a useful dual purpose gelding who was nearest at the finish when a 2 1/4 lengths sixth in the Cork Derby over an inadequate trip.

He was then an unlucky third in another Premier Handicap when up in trip to 2m during the Irish Derby Festival at The Curragh. Davids Charm was then a fine fourth when switched back to jumps in the ultra-competitive Galway Hurdle

When back on the Flat he landed the 1m 6f Kingdom Gold Cup at Killarney, before Grade B success at the Harvest Festival.

As Davids Charm now meets the re-opposing fifth Ballyoisin off 7lb better terms, he should again come out on top.

He’s now rated 8lb superior to Enda Bolger’s charge over hurdles, although that rival has a chase mark of 168.

While Davids Charm is still 5lb shy of Petit Mouchoir, De Bromhead’s hurdler has a very mixed record fresh.

It could pay to side with Davids Charm at 2/1 with 888Sport in a trappy renewal of this hurdles event at Tipperary.

Black Magic Woman the Concorde Stakes choice

Three-year-olds have a great record in the extended 7f Group 3 Concorde Stakes (14:30), so Black Magic Woman looks worth a wager to make the frame off bottom weight.

Trained by Jack Davison, this Camacho filly has run some solid races in defeat at Listed level of late.

They include when a length third to Surrounding at the Galway Festival and chasing home Flight Risk in the Platinum Stakes at Cork.

Although then sixth to Lady Wannabe at Killarney, Black Magic Woman ran a big race off 95 when held just a neck in the Sovereign Path Premier Handicap at Leopardstown.

She was giving the winner 6lb, so it was a great effort in the circumstances.

Black Magic Woman is 12/1 with Coral and one to consider each-way in an open-looking renewal of the Concorde Stakes.

Top-weight Imaging was fifth in this last year, but has taken his form to a new level since.

Trained by Dermot Weld for Khallid Abdullah, the four-year-old Oasis Dream colt held entries at the Arc meeting over in France, so it looks significant he goes here.

Imaging asserted well close home on reappearance to land the Listed 1m Heritage Stakes at Leopardstown, then followed-up at this level in the Gladness at Naas when down in trip.

He was far from disgraced on his final start before a break and first in Group 2 company when beaten half-a-length at Baden Baden in Germany by The Revenant,

As Imaging goes well fresh and is the highest rated in this Concorde Stakes renewal off 107, he is 9/4 with Paddy Power to resume winning ways here.