July Festival day 2 preview: Qabala fancied for Falmouth at Newmarket

Published on: July 11, 2019
Author: David Metcalf
July Festival day 2 preview from Newmarket includes Qabala in the Falmouth Stakes

The feature race at Newmarket on Thursday is the Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (15:35), a Group 1 contest for fillies and mares run over 1m.

In what is a weak renewal where only six are set to go to post, the Roger Varian trained Qabala looks to hold outstanding claims of landing the spoils.

This daughter of Scat Daddy looked a very smart prospect when winning her sole start as a juvenile at this venue when running very green, but finding plenty under a hands and heels ride to beat Desirous by a neck.

She then took the step up into Group 3 company in her stride on return to action here back in May when landing the 11-runner Nell Gwyn Stakes over 7f.

Qabala travelled well throughout before showing a smart turn of foot to beat Mot Juste, who re-opposes in this, by a cosy 1 3/4 lengths.

That impressive success saw her sent off a heavily-backed 7/2 favourite for the 1000 Guineas over the Rowley Mile here, where she kept on well to be beaten 1 1/4 lengths into third behind Hermosa having received a slight bump when challenging between horses.

Although disappointing last time out when a well-beaten ninth of 10 to Hermosa in the Irish equivalent at The Curragh, she has since been given a break to freshen up and bypassed Royal Ascot.

Qabala is also rated just 4lb lower than One Master but receives a handy 9lb weight-for-age allowance from that rival, so comes out 5lb and upwards clear of the field on adjusted ratings.

It makes her the one to beat at 7/2 with BetVictor, especially judged on her 1000 Guineas. Qabala has been saved for this and is expected to give a much better account of herself.

O’Brien’s I Can Fly feared most in Falmouth Stakes

Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien has won two of the last three runnings of the Falmouth Stakes, so his sole representative I Can Fly is of obvious interest and rates the main danger.

This four-year-old daughter of Fastnet Rock, a 9/2 shot with Paddy Power, has won four of her 17 starts and has some smart form in the book.

After landing a Listed contest at Killarney on her second start last season, I Can Fly went on to capture the Group 2 Boomerang Stakes at Leopardstown in good style by 1 3/4 lengths form stable companion Kenya.

She was far from disgraced when a 5 1/4 lengths fourth of nine to the top class filly Laurens in the Group 1 Sun Chariot at this venue when getting outpaced two from home before rallying.

I Can Fly went on to produce a career-best performance when finishing off strongly to go down by just a neck to John Gosden’s brilliant colt Roaring Lion in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot.

The form of that race reads very well in relation to this contest and I Can Fly comes into this contest on the back of three solid efforts.

After shaping well when a 4 1/2 lengths sixth of 14 to Mustahsry in the Group 1 Lockinge at Newbury, she went down fighting when beaten just a length by Beshaayir in a muddlingly run Curragh Group 2.

I Can Fly was then beaten just two lengths at Royal Ascot when third of 17 to Move Swiftly in the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes on soft ground that was far from ideal.

Now back on quicker ground, she looks sure to go well under Ryan Moore and give Qabala plenty to think about.

Daahyeh a worthy favourite in Duchess Of Cambridge

Daahyeh, who is also trained by Varian, has looked a top notch prospect in winning both her starts and looks a worthy 13/8 favourite with Betfred to complete the hat-trick in the 6f Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes for juvenile fillies (14:25).

In the first of those successes at this venue, the daughter of Bated Breath beat Raffle Prize by 1 3/4 lengths.

Daahyeh raced very green in the early stages, but then made good headway two form home to take up the running approaching the final furlong.

She then ran on very strongly to win going away in the manner of an above-average sort. The re-opposing the runner-up has since bolted up by five lengths at Chester before landing the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot.

That gives the form a strong look, and Daahyeh has herself gone on to notch an impressive success at Royal Ascot when beating Celtic Beauty by 1 1/2 lengths in the 25-runner Group 3 Albany Stakes.

After travelling well throughout under David Egan, Daahyeh found plenty when challenged inside the last to win going away at the line.

It was a very dominant display and one which earned her a top-price 20/1 quote for next year’s 1000 guineas.

There is no reason why she should not confirm the form with Ken Condon’s Celtic Beauty on Falmouth Stakes day as they meet on exactly the same terms.

Daahyeh is fully expected to take the step up in class in her stride and further enhance her Classic claims.

Tommy Taylor appeals under Moore

In the 7f Porsche Centre Cambridge Handicap (16:45), Tommy Taylor looks worth siding with at 11/1 with Unibet to score an overdue success now partnered by Ryan Moore for the first time.

This Kevin Ryan trained five-year-old has notched both his career successes at York, with the last of those coming in September 2017 where he beat Downforce by a nose in the Listed 6f Garrowby Stakes off an official rating of 100.​
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He got put up to 107 for that win and went on to round off the campaign with a 7 3/4 lengths seventh of 10 to Blue Point in a Group 3 at Ascot.​ ​​
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Tommy Taylor also posted some solid efforts on defeat last season including when a keeping on 3 3/4 lengths fifth of 14 to Flying Pursuit in a class 2 at Doncaster off 98 and later third of 13 to Fille De Reve at Ascot in a similar grade affair off 96.​ ​​
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Having started last season on a mark of 107, he is now able to race off 89 having run well in his last two starts.

After staying on strongly from off the pace to be nearest at the finish and beaten two lengths by Diocles Of Rome over 7f at Doncaster, the son of Mizzen Mast found the drop back down to 6f at Pontefract three days ago against him when finishing a keeping on and never nearer fourth.

This test is far more suitable and the booking of Moore, who has not ridden for the yard in the past 12 months, is an eye-catching one which suggests connections mean business on Falmouth Stakes day.