Newcastle preview: Invincible Army appeals in ChipchasePublished on: June 28, 2019Author: David Metcalf
Invincible Army has some top class form in the book, so now eased in grade looks a worthy 7/4 favourite with BetVictor to get back to winning ways in the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes run over 6f on Northumberland Plate day at Newcastle this Saturday (14:25).
This Jason Tate trained four-year-old has won a good strike rate having won five of his 14 starts. He has also made the frame on five other occasions.
The son of Invincible Spirit is being turned out quickly by connections having run well at Royal Ascot seven days ago when seventh of 17 to Blue Point in the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes.
Invincible Army showed plenty of pace to chase the leaders, before being unable to find any extra a furlong from home and beaten just over five lengths.
This represents a return to much calmer waters and, prior to that effort, he had looked a sprinter going places in winning both his starts earlier this season.
In the last of those at York, Invincible Army was most impressive when showing a smart turn of foot to easily beat Major Jumbo in the Group 2 Duke Of York Stakes
Judge on the manner of that victory, Invincible Army should be up to winning this Group 3, so it looks like a straightforward task on the pick of his form.
An official rating of 115 also makes him the highest rated in the line-up, and gives him 4lb and upwards in hand on his six rivals.
Invincible Army also has a 38.5 per cent strike rate over the trip, so there is simply nothing not to like about his profile for this and it’s very hard to make a case to oppose him.
Mr Lupton the obvious danger
The Richard Fahey trained Mr Lupton, who can be backed at 7/2 with Betfair, is second best on official ratings and looks the obvious one to take advantage should Invincible Army fail to live up to expectations.
This six-year-old is a consistent sort who enjoyed a fine campaign last season when winning three times.
In the second of those successes, Mr Lupton came with his customary late run from off the pace to beat subsequent Group 1 Nunthorpe winner Alpha Delphini by a head in a Listed eight-runner contest at York.
The son of Elnadim was then far from disgraced when a keeping on, never nearer 4 3/4 lengths fourth to Battaash in the Group 2 King George Stakes at Glorious Goodwood.
Mr Lupton went on to land a Group 3 at Newbury and looked as good as ever on seasonal reappearance at The Curragh last month when keeping on strongly to beat Speak In Colours by three-quarters of a length in the Group 2 Greenlands Stakes.
A bold bid to follow-up looks assured, but whether he has the class to cope with an on-song Invincible Army is another matter.
Cosmic Law gets the verdict in opener
In the 6f Betfair Exchange Handicap that gets proceedings underway on a cracking seven-race card (13;40), the John Dance owned Cosmic Law looks the one to be on at the 5/1 on offer with Ladbrokes.
This Richard Fahey trained son of No Nay Never has some smart form last season as a juvenile when winning twice and posting some solid efforts in defeat.
They included when a 7 1/2 lengths ninth of 23 to Calyx in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot and 5 1/4 lengths sixth of 12 to Dark Vision in similar grade affair at Goodwood off an official rating of 100.
Cosmic Law also ran well when fourth in a Listed contest at Ayr and third in another at York.
The form of those races read well in relation to this class 2 handicap, and he comes into the race on the back of two very promising efforts this season.
In the first of those at Chester, Cosmic Law looked an unlucky loser when dwelling at the start before staying on strongly and failing to overhaul Lihou by just a neck.
He then again did all his best work at the finish when a 2 1/4 lengths fourth of 22 to Recon Mission in a competitive class 2 event at York.
Those runs suggest that Cosmic Law’s time is near and his current rating of 97 looks exploitable on the pick of his form.
Other pluses are that he won once and been placed once in three starts in the grade, and once again has the services of PJ McDonald in the saddle who has partnered him to both his career successes.
Carnwennan fancied to bloom in Vase
Carnwennan is in the form of his life at present, so looks to hold leading claims of landing the spoils in the 2m Northumberland Vase Handicap (15:00).
This four-year-old hails from the red-hot yard of Charlie Fellows, who is operating at an incredible strike rate of just over 36 per cent in the last 14 days at the time of writing.
The son of Cacique has won three of his nine starts and also made the frame on four occasions.
After finishing a fine three-quarters of a length runner-up to Handiwork at Doncaster on seasonal reappearance, Carnwennan came from off the pace to win going away by 1 1/2 lengths from Mancini in a 15-runner affair at York.
He got put up 4lb for that taking success, but had no difficulty following-up at Chelmsford when again staying on strongly to score by 1 1/2 lengths.
Carnwennan scored with far more in hand than the winning margin suggests and only does enough to get the job done.
That makes it hard for the assessor to get to grips with him, so a further 4lb rise in the weights looks lenient.
Carnwennan is a handicapper with on a serious upward curve who looks the type to go on improving, so a revised rating of 87 could well underestimate his ability.
This race should also be run to suit and Carnwennan has built up a good rapport with Stevie Donohoe who is once again in the saddle. He can be backed at 5/1 with Coral.
Of those at bigger odds Rare Groove appeals each-way at 9/1 with 888Sport, given that he has won once and been placed once in two starts at the venue and has run well in two hot handicaps this season.