With seeds dropping like flies at the US Open, Belinda Bencic beats Osaka in the women’s singles last 16 looks a value punt on Monday.
Naomi Osaka may be the defending champion at Flushing Meadows, but she lost both previous meetings with the Swiss this year.
Bencic bested her Japanese opponent on the clay courts of Madrid and crucially a hard surface at Indian Wells.
Top seed Osaka hasn’t beaten her since way back in 2013 and never with these underfoot conditions.
That makes the odds-on favourite opposable with Bencic, who is the fresher tennis player. This is because her third round women’s singles match at the US Open was a walkover.
Both ladies dropped sets in earlier fixtures en route to this meeting. Osaka lost a tiebreak in round one, while Bencic was pegged back by Alize Cornet.
Why Bencic beats Osaka punt makes sense
As Bencic leads their head-to-head 2-1 and both those victories came earlier this year, she may have Osaka’s number.
Odds of 2/1 with Unibet say Bencic beats Osaka and, given her recent record, that looks value.
Osaka took just four games off the Swiss at this stage of Indian Wells. While the Japanese is sure to give a better account of herself at this Grand Slam, that’s a major concern.
Bencic had to work for her most recent victory over Osaka when coming from behind at the Madrid Masters. That shows she can’t be counted out if she does lose the opener here.
Only three of the top 10 seeds are left the in the US Open women’s singles now. Bencic is next on a provisional ranking of 12th in the world.
There have already been so many shocks in the top half of the draw that it isn’t a stretch to imagine this. Osaka must prove herself in her toughest assignment at Flushing Meadows so far and could come up short.
Bet of the Day: 2/1 with Unibet, Belinda Bencic beats Osaka in US Open women’s singles last 16.